Download e-book for iPad: Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs by Finn V. Jensen (auth.)

By Finn V. Jensen (auth.)

ISBN-10: 1475735022

ISBN-13: 9781475735024

ISBN-10: 1475735049

ISBN-13: 9781475735048

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Extra resources for Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs

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2 Stud farm The stallion Brian has sired Dorothy with the mare Ann and sired Eric with the mare Cecily. Dorothy and Fred are the parents of Henry, and Eric has sired Irene with Gwenn. Ann is the mother of both Fred and Gwenn, but their fathers are in no way related. The colt John with the parents Henry and Irene has been born recently; unfortunately, it turns out that John suffers from a life-threatening hereditary disease carried by a recessive gene. The disease is so serious that John is displaced instantly, and as the stud farm wants the gene out of production, Henry and Irene are taken out of breeding.

Stud farm probabilities given that John is sick. 49 50 2. 16. 9999). 3 Conditional probabilities for the poker game In the stud farm example, the conditional probabilities were mainly established through theoretical considerations. 5, but it cannot be carried through entirely. Consider for example P(FC I OHO). It is not possible to give probabilities that are valid for any opponent. It is heavily dependent on the opponent's insight, psychology, and game strategies. We will assume the following strategy: If nothing special (no), then change 3.

Tractability is not a yes or no issue. As described in Chapter 5, there are algorithms for probability updating in Bayesian networks, but basically probability updating is NP-hard. This means that some models have an updating time exponential in the number of nodes. On the other hand, the running times of the algorithms can be easily calculated without actually running them. In Chapters 5 and 7, we treat complexity issues for the various graphical languages presented. 5 Summary 29 or the connection is converging, and neither V nor any of V's descendants have received evidence.

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Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs by Finn V. Jensen (auth.)


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